Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 17 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thalay Luang Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sukhothai FC, 1.30 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Prachuap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Sukhothai FC 2W, Prachuap 3W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 61% versus Prachuap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 52% | Prachuap 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.67 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.918 | Prachuap attack 0.980 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.145. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Sukhothai FC games / 47 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 4.35. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.67 / Prachuap 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.883 / def 0.918 | Prachuap attack 0.980 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Prachuap xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 51% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
Record (7 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.88) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.98x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
51%
1.94
26%
3.87
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.03
Prachuap xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
4%
23.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.03 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 15D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (17W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.43 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.57 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 17W 15D 14L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Prachuap away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Prachuap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 67%, Prachuap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sukhothai FC) and 43% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 57% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 43% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Sukhothai FC and Prachuap drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.67 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Prachuap attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 23%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 52%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG, Prachuap 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.