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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Kanchanaburi to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kanchanaburi stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 1.20 PPG versus Kanchanaburi's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Kanchanaburi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Kanchanaburi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Kanchanaburi 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Kanchanaburi 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.058 / defence 1.179 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.707 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.087. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Lamphun Warrior games / 19 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Kanchanaburi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Kanchanaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.

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