Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Sukhothai FC.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sukhothai FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Chiangrai United against 0.60 for Sukhothai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sukhothai FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Chiangrai United 1–1 Sukhothai FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Sukhothai FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Sukhothai FC 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.56 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.788 / defence 1.125 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.533 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.083. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.56. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.533 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 55 games and Sukhothai FC's last 56.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 57% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.75 | Draw 3.36 | Sukhothai FC 7.59. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (57%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 20% (last 10 away games).

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