Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Port FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Port FC make the trip to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Port FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Port FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Port FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Chiangrai United, 3 for Port FC and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Chiangrai United 1–1 Port FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Port FC — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 51% versus Port FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Port FC 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Port FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.784 / defence 1.055 | Port FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.124. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 53 games and Port FC's last 54.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 33% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.45 | Draw 3.06 | Port FC 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights