BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as BG Pathum United face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at BG Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
BG Pathum United's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BG Pathum United at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. BG Pathum United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours BG Pathum United, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — Nakhon Ratchasima FC have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended BG Pathum United 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a BG Pathum United win.
The head-to-head data gives BG Pathum United an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 56% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 49% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%). Note also that Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while BG Pathum United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.91 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.121 / defence 1.176 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.804 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.081. Data: built from BG Pathum United's last 57 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 57.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 56% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 17%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.79 | Draw 3.73 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.75. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (BG Pathum United's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BG Pathum United 70% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 56% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG BG Pathum United 1.91 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.121 / def 1.176 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.804 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
BG Pathum United 1 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 56% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.80x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from BG Pathum United's last 57 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.73
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.94
1.02
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
38.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.02 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BG Pathum United come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 17D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 57 outings (12W 17D 28L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
BG Pathum United's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.95 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
BG Pathum United (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BG Pathum United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 27W 17D 13L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 12W 17D 28L in their last 57 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.68 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
BG Pathum United have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 BG Pathum United on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
BG Pathum United
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, BG Pathum United have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (BG Pathum United) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 64% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.91 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 56% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 17%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 49%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.