Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Thammasat Stadium to face Bangkok United in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bangkok United at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Bangkok United, 1.80 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Bangkok United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Bangkok United's games and 70% of Ratchaburi's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bangkok United, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Ratchaburi — Ratchaburi have 1 win, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Bangkok United 1–0 Ratchaburi — a Bangkok United win.
The head-to-head data gives Bangkok United an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 56% versus Ratchaburi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 53% | Ratchaburi 58%). Note also that Ratchaburi surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Bangkok United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 83% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.47 xG and Ratchaburi 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.047 / defence 0.884 | Ratchaburi attack 1.351 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.077. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.351, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Bangkok United's last 55 games and Ratchaburi's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 39% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 30%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 2.57 | Draw 3.26 | Ratchaburi 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bangkok United 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bangkok United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bangkok United 70% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 39% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Bangkok United 1.47 / Ratchaburi 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.047 / def 0.884 | Ratchaburi attack 1.351 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ratchaburi xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United 1 - 4 Ratchaburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 39% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bangkok United and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.05) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.35x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Bangkok United's last 55 games and Ratchaburi's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.26
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.76
1.29
Ratchaburi xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bangkok United and 1.29 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 33W 15D 7L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Ratchaburi's form line: 29W 12D 14L from 55 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Bangkok United against 1.80 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.31 PPG from their last 26 home games (18W 6D 2L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 13W 4D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.95 scored and 1.33 conceded. Ratchaburi's attacking output running into Bangkok United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi in 60%.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
Bangkok United (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bangkok United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 33W 15D 7L in their last 55 games (2.07 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 29W 12D 14L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.31 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bangkok United
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bangkok United have won 5, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Ratchaburi 1-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Bangkok United, 65% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Bangkok United and 65% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bangkok United and Ratchaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Bangkok United's games and 65% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bangkok United's matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Bangkok United and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 69% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Bangkok United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Bangkok United 1-4 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.47 xG and Ratchaburi 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Ratchaburi attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 39% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 30%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 53%, Ratchaburi 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bangkok United 2.07 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.