Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Ayutthaya FC take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Ayutthaya FC, 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Ayutthaya FC 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a Ayutthaya FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 62% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.629 / defence 1.284 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.747 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.145. Ayutthaya FC's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Ayutthaya FC's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output up. Data: built from Ayutthaya FC's last 24 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 3.01 | Draw 2.93 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.07. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ayutthaya FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.11 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.629 / def 1.284 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.747 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 33% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.75x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Ayutthaya FC's last 24 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.93
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.10 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 8W 8D 8L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 3W 5D 16L from 24 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Ayutthaya FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.83 PPG from their last 12 home games (2W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 9L from their last 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.62 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Ayutthaya FC (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 5D 16L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ayutthaya FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 42% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.28 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.