Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Ayutthaya FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ayutthaya FC at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ayutthaya FC's last 10 home games and Kanchanaburi's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 70% of Kanchanaburi's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Ayutthaya FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Kanchanaburi — a Ayutthaya FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 64% versus Kanchanaburi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Kanchanaburi 50%). Note also that Kanchanaburi surrender HT leads in 71% of cases while Ayutthaya FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.705 / defence 1.200 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.735 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.141. Ayutthaya FC's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ayutthaya FC's projected output up. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Ayutthaya FC's last 22 games and Kanchanaburi's last 23.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.41 | Draw 3.11 | Kanchanaburi 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ayutthaya FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Kanchanaburi 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.32 / Kanchanaburi 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.705 / def 1.200 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.735 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kanchanaburi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi FAQs
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 2 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 42% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.73x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Ayutthaya FC's last 22 games and Kanchanaburi's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.11
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Kanchanaburi xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.01 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Kanchanaburi's form line: 2W 9D 11L from 22 games, 0.68 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Ayutthaya FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kanchanaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.91 PPG from their last 11 home games (2W 4D 5L). That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 4D 7L from their last 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 0.95 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Ayutthaya FC (Home) vs Kanchanaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi Form FAQs
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.91 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Kanchanaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Ayutthaya FC, 64% for Kanchanaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ayutthaya FC) and 46% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 64% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 46% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 73% of Kanchanaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kanchanaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi beat Ayutthaya FC 0-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Kanchanaburi outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kanchanaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Kanchanaburi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Kanchanaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.