Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.15 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.884 / defence 1.100 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.741 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 0.821. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Vasteras SK FK games / 4 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 43% | Draw 39% | Jonkopings Sodra 18%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.33 | Draw 2.56 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 43% | Draw 39% | Jonkopings Sodra 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.15 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.884 / def 1.100 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.741 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.030 / away 0.821 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Jonkopings Sodra xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 43% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 18% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
43%
2.30
39%
2.57
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
1.82
0.67
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.30
43%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.67 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Jonkopings Sodra 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.15 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.67 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 43% | Draw 39% | Jonkopings Sodra 18%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.