Falkenbergs FF 3-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Falkenbergs FF take on Orgryte IS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS meet at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.00 xG and Orgryte IS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.677 / defence 1.484 | Orgryte IS attack 0.901 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 0.821. Falkenbergs FF's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Falkenbergs FF games / 4 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 38% | Orgryte IS 34%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Orgryte IS 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 38% | Orgryte IS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.00 / Orgryte IS 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.677 / def 1.484 | Orgryte IS attack 0.901 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.030 / away 0.821 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Orgryte IS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS?
Falkenbergs FF 3 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 28% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.68) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.90x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.52
38%
2.63
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.10
1.10
Orgryte IS xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.10 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Orgryte IS?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Orgryte IS 3-2 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.00 xG and Orgryte IS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.68 / defence 1.48 against Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 1.43, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 38% | Orgryte IS 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.