Orgryte IS 1-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Orgryte IS take on Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Nya Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.93 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.799 / defence 1.174 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.739 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 0.833. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Orgryte IS games / 3 Vasteras SK FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Vasteras SK FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 2.38 | Vasteras SK FK 4.35. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Vasteras SK FK's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.65 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Nya Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Vasteras SK FK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG Orgryte IS 0.93 / Vasteras SK FK 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.799 / def 1.174 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.739 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.020 / away 0.833 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Nya Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Nya Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
42%
2.37
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.65
0.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.37
42%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.72 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
6
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 1-1 at Nya Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.93 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.72 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Vasteras SK FK 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.