IK brage 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as IK brage take on Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.85 xG and Helsingborg 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.777 / defence 1.167 | Helsingborg attack 0.879 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 0.863. IK brage's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 IK brage games / 4 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 29% | Draw 39% | Helsingborg 31%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Helsingborg 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 29% | Draw 39% | Helsingborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG IK brage 0.85 / Helsingborg 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.777 / def 1.167 | Helsingborg attack 0.879 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.050 / away 0.863 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Helsingborg xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Helsingborg kick off?
IK brage vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Helsingborg?
IK brage 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is IK brage vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Helsingborg part of?
IK brage vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 29% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both IK brage and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Helsingborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.78) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.88x) against IK brage's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
39%
2.54
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.74
0.89
Helsingborg xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 15.6 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for IK brage and 0.89 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Helsingborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at IK brage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.85 xG and Helsingborg 0.89 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IK brage fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Helsingborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 29% | Draw 39% | Helsingborg 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.