Vasalund 0-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasalund host Norrby IF at Skytteholms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.46 xG and Norrby IF 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.025 / defence 1.180 | Norrby IF attack 0.753 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 0.856. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Vasalund games / 4 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 50% | Draw 34% | Norrby IF 16%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.00 | Draw 2.94 | Norrby IF 6.25. Vasalund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasalund at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 50% | Draw 34% | Norrby IF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Vasalund 1.46 / Norrby IF 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.025 / def 1.180 | Norrby IF attack 0.753 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.082 / away 0.856 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Norrby IF xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Norrby IF kick off?
Vasalund vs Norrby IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Norrby IF?
Vasalund 0 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Vasalund vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Norrby IF part of?
Vasalund vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 50% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 16% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vasalund and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and Norrby IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasalund's attack at 1.02x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
50%
1.99
34%
2.95
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.22
0.76
Norrby IF xG
1.99
50%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
27.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.76 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasalund and Norrby IF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
1
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Norrby IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Norrby IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2021, when Norrby IF 0-0 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat Vasalund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Vasalund 0-1 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.46 xG and Norrby IF 0.76 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasalund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Norrby IF attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 50% | Draw 34% | Norrby IF 16%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Norrby IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.