Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Trelleborg travel to Vapenvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.53 xG and Trelleborg 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.211 / defence 1.048 | Trelleborg attack 1.026 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 0.788. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Jonkopings Sodra games / 3 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Trelleborg 5.88. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.53 / Trelleborg 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.211 / def 1.048 | Trelleborg attack 1.026 / def 1.266 | league avg home 0.996 / away 0.788 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Trelleborg xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 50% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
50%
2.01
33%
3.02
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.37
0.85
Trelleborg xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
26.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.85 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 4, as Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.53 xG and Trelleborg 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 17%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.