Norrby IF 0-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Norrby IF welcome Gais to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 0.95 xG and Gais 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.139 / defence 1.109 | Gais attack 0.650 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.020. Data: 8 Norrby IF games / 7 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 39% | Draw 34% | Gais 27%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Gais 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Gais's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 39% | Draw 34% | Gais 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Norrby IF 0.95 / Gais 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.139 / def 1.109 | Gais attack 0.650 / def 0.941 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gais xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Gais kick off?
Norrby IF vs Gais kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Gais?
Norrby IF 0 - 2 Gais.
Where is Norrby IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Gais part of?
Norrby IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 39% chance of winning, Gais a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Norrby IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Gais in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norrby IF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.95
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
1.69
0.74
Gais xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.74 for Gais, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Gais runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Gais have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2021, when Gais 1-4 Norrby IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Norrby IF 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 0.95 xG and Gais 0.74 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against Gais attack 0.65 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 39% | Draw 34% | Gais 27%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.