Falkenbergs FF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 0.76 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.844 / defence 1.650 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.773 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 0.857 / away 0.994. Data: 8 Falkenbergs FF games / 8 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 22% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 48%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 2.08. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 22% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Falkenbergs FF 0.76 / Vasteras SK FK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.844 / def 1.650 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.773 / def 1.055 | league avg home 0.857 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Vasteras SK FK xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Falkenbergs FF 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 22% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.84) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
22%
4.46
29%
3.42
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.03
1.27
Vasteras SK FK xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 16.6 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.27 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 0.76 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.27 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.84 / defence 1.65 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 22% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 48%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Falkenbergs FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.