Vasalund 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 4 as Vasalund welcome IK brage to Skytteholms IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.21 xG and IK brage 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.071 / defence 1.305 | IK brage attack 0.761 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 0.843. Data: 3 Vasalund games / 3 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 41% | Draw 38% | IK brage 22%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.44 | Draw 2.63 | IK brage 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 41% | Draw 38% | IK brage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Vasalund 1.21 / IK brage 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.071 / def 1.305 | IK brage attack 0.761 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.019 / away 0.843 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.84
IK brage xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs IK brage kick off?
Vasalund vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs IK brage?
Vasalund 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Vasalund vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs IK brage part of?
Vasalund vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 41% chance of winning, IK brage a 22% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vasalund and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and IK brage in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasalund's attack rating (1.07) and IK brage's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
41%
2.45
38%
2.67
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.05
0.84
IK brage xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vasalund and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.84 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vasalund
0
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 1, IK brage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2021, when IK brage 3-0 Vasalund.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Vasalund edge out IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat IK brage 1-0 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.21 xG and IK brage 0.84 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.07 / defence 1.30 against IK brage attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 41% | Draw 38% | IK brage 22%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.