Gais 3-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Gais take on Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nya Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.94 xG and Osters IF 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.936 / defence 1.040 | Osters IF attack 0.874 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 0.793. Data: 3 Gais games / 3 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.86 | Draw 2.38 | Osters IF 4.35. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Osters IF's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Nya Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG Gais 0.94 / Osters IF 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.936 / def 1.040 | Osters IF attack 0.874 / def 1.020 | league avg home 0.980 / away 0.793 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Osters IF xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Osters IF kick off?
Gais vs Osters IF kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 4 May 2021 at Nya Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Osters IF?
Gais 3 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Gais vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Nya Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Osters IF part of?
Gais vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 35% chance of winning, Osters IF a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gais and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Osters IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gais's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.87x) against Gais's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.85
42%
2.38
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Gais xG
Total xG
1.66
0.72
Osters IF xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 13.8 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Gais and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Gais and 0.72 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gais
2
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Osters IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Gais 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Osters IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Osters IF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Osters IF 3-2 at Nya Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.94 xG and Osters IF 0.72 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Osters IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.