Trelleborg 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Orgryte IS at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.89 xG and Orgryte IS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.044 / defence 1.176 | Orgryte IS attack 0.878 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 0.824. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Trelleborg games / 2 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 62% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 16%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Orgryte IS 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 62% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Trelleborg 1.89 / Orgryte IS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.044 / def 1.176 | Orgryte IS attack 0.878 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.234 / away 0.824 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orgryte IS xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 62% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trelleborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.04x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.57
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.74
0.85
Orgryte IS xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
40.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.85 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 6, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Trelleborg and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 3, as Trelleborg and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.89 xG and Orgryte IS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Orgryte IS attack 0.88 / defence 1.46, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 62% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 16%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.