Orgryte IS 0-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 12 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.74 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.670 / defence 1.164 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.797 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 0.873 / away 1.016. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Orgryte IS games / 9 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 34% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Orgryte IS's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 34% | Jonkopings Sodra 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Orgryte IS 0.74 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.670 / def 1.164 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.797 / def 1.267 | league avg home 0.873 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Jonkopings Sodra xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Orgryte IS 0 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 27% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.67x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.80x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
27%
3.65
34%
2.94
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.68
0.94
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 17.5 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.94 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Orgryte IS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.74 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.94 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 34% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.