Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Osters IF travel to Iver Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 June 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.08 xG and Osters IF 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.028 / defence 1.108 | Osters IF attack 0.810 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 0.894 / away 1.027. Data: 9 Vasteras SK FK games / 9 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 39% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 30%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Osters IF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 39% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.08 / Osters IF 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.028 / def 1.108 | Osters IF attack 0.810 / def 1.181 | league avg home 0.894 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osters IF xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 39% chance of winning, Osters IF a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 1.03x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.26
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.01
0.92
Osters IF xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.92 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
5
Draws
0
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Osters IF have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Osters IF 2-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Vasteras SK FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Osters IF finished level at 0-0 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.08 xG and Osters IF 0.92 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Osters IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Osters IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 39% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 30%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.