Orgryte IS 0-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Orgryte IS welcome IFK Varnamo to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 June 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.66 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.748 / defence 1.280 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.828 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.868 / away 1.016. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Orgryte IS games / 7 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 22% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 45%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | IFK Varnamo 2.22. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Orgryte IS's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 22% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Orgryte IS 0.66 / IFK Varnamo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.748 / def 1.280 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.828 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.868 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.08
IFK Varnamo xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo?
Orgryte IS 0 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 22% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
22%
4.48
33%
3.07
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.74
1.08
IFK Varnamo xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.08 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
0
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2021, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, as Orgryte IS and IFK Varnamo drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.66 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.08 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 22% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 45%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.