Helsingborg 0-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.24 xG and Norrby IF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.092 / defence 1.069 | Norrby IF attack 0.893 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 0.924. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Helsingborg games / 6 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 44% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Norrby IF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 44% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Helsingborg 1.24 / Norrby IF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.092 / def 1.069 | Norrby IF attack 0.893 / def 1.209 | league avg home 0.938 / away 0.924 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Norrby IF xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Norrby IF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Norrby IF kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 19 May 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Norrby IF?
Helsingborg 0 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Norrby IF part of?
Helsingborg vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 44% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Helsingborg and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Norrby IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Helsingborg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.89x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.26
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.12
0.88
Norrby IF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.88 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Norrby IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Norrby IF 3-3 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Helsingborg 0-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.24 xG and Norrby IF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Norrby IF outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Norrby IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 44% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 26%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.