IK brage 1-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IK brage at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 11 as IK brage welcome Orgryte IS to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 June 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.803 / defence 1.098 | Orgryte IS attack 0.919 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 0.887 / away 0.994. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 IK brage games / 10 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 35% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Orgryte IS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jun 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 35% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG IK brage 1.02 / Orgryte IS 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.803 / def 1.098 | Orgryte IS attack 0.919 / def 1.432 | league avg home 0.887 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: IK brage (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 June 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
IK brage 1 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is IK brage vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orgryte IS part of?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 35% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IK brage and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.26
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.02
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for IK brage and 1.00 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
3
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat IK brage 1-3 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.00 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 1.43, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 35% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 34%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.