AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna host Falkenbergs FF at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 June 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.40 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.197 / defence 0.979 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.764 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 0.894 / away 1.027. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 AFC Eskilstuna games / 9 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 21%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Falkenbergs FF 4.76. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.40 / Falkenbergs FF 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.197 / def 0.979 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.764 / def 1.306 | league avg home 0.894 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Falkenbergs FF xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 52% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.64
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.17
0.77
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
19.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.77 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Falkenbergs FF 3-4 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 10, as AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.40 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 21%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.