Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra and Gais meet at Vapenvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 June 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.35 xG and Gais 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.519 / defence 1.035 | Gais attack 0.701 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.000. Jonkopings Sodra carry an above-average attack strength of 1.519 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Jonkopings Sodra games / 10 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Gais 20%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Gais 5.00. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jun 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Gais 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.35 / Gais 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.519 / def 1.035 | Gais attack 0.701 / def 0.974 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Gais xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 June 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 0 Gais.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 52% chance of winning, Gais a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Gais in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.70x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.08
0.73
Gais xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.73 for Gais, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, Gais have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Gais 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Gais 1-0 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.35 xG and Gais 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.52 / defence 1.03 against Gais attack 0.70 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Gais 20%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.