Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Vasteras SK FK to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 4D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.30 (Vasteras SK FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 61% and Vasteras SK FK 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Vasteras SK FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.97 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.144 / defence 1.042 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.017 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.317. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Landskrona BoIS games / 56 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Vasteras SK FK 3.85. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Vasteras SK FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.97 / Vasteras SK FK 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.144 / def 1.042 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.017 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Vasteras SK FK xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 50% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.14x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.19
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.36
1.40
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.40 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 14D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (15W 22D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.43 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 17W 6D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.39 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Vasteras SK FK in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 15W 22D 19L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.11 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
5
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 70%, Vasteras SK FK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 44% (Vasteras SK FK).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 59% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 44% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.97 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.40 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Vasteras SK FK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.43 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.