Vasteras SK FK 4-1 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Dalkurd FF travel to Iver Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's home record at Iver Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Dalkurd FF have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Vasteras SK FK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Dalkurd FF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 55% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 72% and Dalkurd FF 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 62% | Dalkurd FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 2.42 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.280 / defence 1.241 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.830 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.276. Vasteras SK FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Vasteras SK FK games / 27 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Dalkurd FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 80% | Dalkurd FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Vasteras SK FK 2.42 / Dalkurd FF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.280 / def 1.241 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.830 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dalkurd FF xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Vasteras SK FK 4 - 1 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 61% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.28) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.88
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.73
1.31
Dalkurd FF xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
9%
11.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
2%
60.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.31 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 7W 12D 10L from 29 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 16L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.14 PPG, Dalkurd FF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 4W 7D 3L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalkurd FF's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.10 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.36 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Vasteras SK FK 4-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 79%, Dalkurd FF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vasteras SK FK and 50% for Dalkurd FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 43% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 50% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Dalkurd FF 4-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.42 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.31 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 19%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 62%, Dalkurd FF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.14 PPG, Dalkurd FF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.