Orgryte IS 0-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jonkopings Sodra in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orgryte IS 1W, Jonkopings Sodra 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 64% and Jonkopings Sodra 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.110 / defence 0.929 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.985 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.321. Data: 56 Orgryte IS games / 56 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 32%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Orgryte IS 1.38 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.110 / def 0.929 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.985 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Orgryte IS 0 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 40% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 2 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.11x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.98x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.52
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.21 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 23D 17L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 18W 15D 23L from 56 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.23 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (7W 14D 7L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 16W 23D 17L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.25 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 61%, Jonkopings Sodra 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Orgryte IS) and 43% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 29% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Orgryte IS's games and 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 43% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 32%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.