Trelleborg 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Orebro SK meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Trelleborg, 0 for Orebro SK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 68% versus Orebro SK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 59% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.38 xG and Orebro SK 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.014 / defence 1.229 | Orebro SK attack 0.762 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.317. Data: 56 Trelleborg games / 26 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 32%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Orebro SK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Trelleborg 1.38 / Orebro SK 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.014 / def 1.229 | Orebro SK attack 0.762 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Orebro SK xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK part of?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 39% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Trelleborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.76x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.23
Orebro SK xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.23 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 16D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 0.93 PPG from 56 outings (14W 10D 32L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (6W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.93 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 16D 18L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 10D 32L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orebro SK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
6
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 63%, Orebro SK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Trelleborg) and 52% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 41% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Trelleborg's matches and 52% of Orebro SK's.
Do Trelleborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.38 xG and Orebro SK 1.23 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Orebro SK attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 39% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 32%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 59%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.