Landskrona BoIS 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus AFC Eskilstuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 49% | AFC Eskilstuna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.73 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.087 / defence 0.953 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.950 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.285. Data: 57 Landskrona BoIS games / 57 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 80% | AFC Eskilstuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.73 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.087 / def 0.953 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.950 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 49% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.09) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.85
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.89
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
4%
22.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.16 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 25L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.46 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 18W 6D 4L from 28 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 7W 5D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.51 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 22W 10D 25L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.14 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 68%, AFC Eskilstuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Landskrona BoIS) and 57% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 28, as Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.73 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 49%, AFC Eskilstuna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.46 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.