IK brage 0-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as IK brage welcome Skövde AIK to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 3W 3D 4L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.20 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Skövde AIK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 0 for Skövde AIK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 75% and Skövde AIK 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 71% | Skövde AIK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.31 xG and Skövde AIK 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.852 / defence 1.091 | Skövde AIK attack 0.856 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.297. Data: 56 IK brage games / 26 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 38% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 33%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Skövde AIK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | Skövde AIK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 38% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG IK brage 1.31 / Skövde AIK 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.852 / def 1.091 | Skövde AIK attack 0.856 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: IK brage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Skövde AIK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Skövde AIK kick off?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
IK brage 0 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is IK brage vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Skövde AIK part of?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 38% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IK brage and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Skövde AIK 0W.
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Skövde AIK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.45
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.52
1.21
Skövde AIK xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are IK brage and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for IK brage and 1.21 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 7L across 28 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.68 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 6W 4D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 12W 9D 7L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Skövde AIK away?
Skövde AIK's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.50 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.57 PPG.
Have IK brage or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IK brage's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
3
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 64%, Skövde AIK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for IK brage and 57% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of IK brage's games and 64% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of IK brage's matches and 57% of Skövde AIK's.
Do IK brage and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IK brage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Skövde AIK finished level at 0-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.31 xG and Skövde AIK 1.21 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Skövde AIK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Skövde AIK attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 38% | Draw 29% | Skövde AIK 33%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 71%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.68 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.