Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Helsingborg face IK brage.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Olympia to face Helsingborg in Superettan (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Helsingborg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Helsingborg have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, IK brage have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Helsingborg 0–1 IK brage — a IK brage win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 53% versus IK brage 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 47% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.33 xG and IK brage 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.852 / defence 1.052 | IK brage attack 0.651 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. IK brage's attack rating of 0.651 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Helsingborg's last 28 games and IK brage's last 58.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.11 | Draw 3.49 | IK brage 4.17. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helsingborg 60% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, matchday 29 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Helsingborg 1.33 / IK brage 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.852 / def 1.052 | IK brage attack 0.651 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IK brage xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helsingborg vs IK brage FAQs
What time does Helsingborg vs IK brage kick off?
Helsingborg vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Helsingborg 2 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Helsingborg vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IK brage part of?
Helsingborg vs IK brage is a Superettan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 47% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Helsingborg and IK brage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Helsingborg vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.85x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.65x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Helsingborg's last 28 games and IK brage's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.49
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.19
0.86
IK brage xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helsingborg vs IK brage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.86 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 14D 33L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.38 PPG from 58 outings (22W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 7W 6D 16L across their last 29 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 8D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
Helsingborg (Home) vs IK brage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helsingborg
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Helsingborg vs IK brage Form FAQs
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 11W 14D 33L in their last 58 games (0.81 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 14D 22L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.93 PPG; IK brage away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won Helsingborg 3-0 IK brage on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Helsingborg
2
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Helsingborg vs IK brage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helsingborg have won 5, IK brage have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IK brage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: IK brage 2-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 48%, IK brage 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Helsingborg) and 55% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 38% of games; IK brage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helsingborg vs IK brage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helsingborg and IK brage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 59% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Helsingborg and IK brage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Helsingborg's recent games and 55% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IK brage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 72% of IK brage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IK brage 2-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.33 xG and IK brage 0.86 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IK brage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against IK brage attack 0.65 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 47%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Helsingborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.