IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Jonkopings Sodra at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, IK brage have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IK brage have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–4 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 58% and Jonkopings Sodra 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 59% | Jonkopings Sodra 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.45 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.189 / defence 0.966 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.959 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 IK brage games / 59 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 66% | Draw 18% | Jonkopings Sodra 16%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Jonkopings Sodra 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 70% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 66% | Draw 18% | Jonkopings Sodra 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG IK brage 2.45 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.189 / def 0.966 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.959 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: IK brage (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Jonkopings Sodra xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
IK brage 4 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 66% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (5 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 2 | Jonkopings Sodra 2W.
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.45. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.61
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.58
1.14
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
9%
11.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
1%
72.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for IK brage and 1.14 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage's recent record stands at 22W 14D 23L from 59 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 24L across 59 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.36 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 14W 6D 9L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 5W 12D 12L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 71%.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 16W 19D 24L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
IK brage's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.66 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 59%, Jonkopings Sodra 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for IK brage and 62% for Jonkopings Sodra. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of IK brage's games and 69% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of IK brage's matches and 62% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Jonkopings Sodra 4-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.45 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.14 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.96 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 66% | Draw 18% | Jonkopings Sodra 16%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 59%, Jonkopings Sodra 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.36 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.