Ostersunds FK 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ostersunds FK face Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Osters IF in Superettan (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Osters IF's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Ostersunds FK's games and 90% of Osters IF's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Ostersunds FK 1–0 Osters IF — a Ostersunds FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 60% and Osters IF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | Osters IF 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ostersunds FK surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Osters IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.72 xG and Osters IF 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.150 / defence 1.134 | Osters IF attack 1.120 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 58 games and Osters IF's last 58.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 23% | Osters IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.44 | Draw 4.29 | Osters IF 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Osters IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ostersunds FK 80% (last 10 home games) | Osters IF 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 29 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 23% | Osters IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.72 / Osters IF 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.150 / def 1.134 | Osters IF attack 1.120 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Osters IF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 41% chance of winning, Osters IF a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Osters IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (1.15) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.12x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 58 games and Osters IF's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
41%
2.44
23%
4.29
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.32
1.60
Osters IF xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.60 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 23D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.60 PPG from 60 outings (27W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.60 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 12W 11D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Osters IF in 67%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Osters IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 23D 20L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Osters IF away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Osters IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Ostersunds FK, 73% for Osters IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 63% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Osters IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ostersunds FK's games and 73% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 63% of Osters IF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Osters IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 73% of Osters IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.72 xG and Osters IF 1.60 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.15 / defence 1.13 against Osters IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 23% | Osters IF 36%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Osters IF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.23 PPG, Osters IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.