Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gais at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra and Gais meet at Stadsparksvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadsparksvallen, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Gais have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gais arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
The historical record gives Jonkopings Sodra a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jonkopings Sodra — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Gais — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 75% and Gais 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jonkopings Sodra 75% | Gais 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.11 xG and Gais 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.949 / defence 1.182 | Gais attack 1.643 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.225. Gais's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gais have an above-average attack strength of 1.643 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Jonkopings Sodra games / 28 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 16% | Draw 18% | Gais 66%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Gais 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Gais (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Jonkopings Sodra dominate the H2H record, yet Gais are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 80% | Gais 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 16% | Draw 18% | Gais 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.11 / Gais 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.949 / def 1.182 | Gais attack 1.643 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Gais (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Gais xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 2 Gais.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 16% chance of winning, Gais a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 3W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Gais in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Gais (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Gais's attack (1.64x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
16%
6.19
18%
5.47
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.49
2.38
Gais xG
6.19
16%
Home win
5.47
18%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
9%
10.79
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
1%
66.84
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 2.38 for Gais, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 10D 11L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 2.11 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Gais in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Gais have gone 16W 6D 6L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.57 PPG; Gais away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Gais in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, Gais have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Gais?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 79%, Gais 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jonkopings Sodra and 71% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 50% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 71% of Gais's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Gais tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gais in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.11 xG and Gais 2.38 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Gais attack 1.64 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 16% | Draw 18% | Gais 66%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 75%, Gais 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.