Orgryte IS 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Orgryte IS's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vasteras SK FK's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Orgryte IS's games and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's (from Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Vasteras SK FK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Orgryte IS have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 0, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Orgryte IS 0–0 Vasteras SK FK — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 57% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 55% | Vasteras SK FK 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orgryte IS surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Vasteras SK FK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.00 xG and Vasteras SK FK 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.777 / defence 1.385 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.157 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. Orgryte IS's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 58 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 58.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 18% | Draw 21% | Vasteras SK FK 61%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 5.59 | Draw 4.67 | Vasteras SK FK 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Vasteras SK FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 70% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 18% | Draw 21% | Vasteras SK FK 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.00 / Vasteras SK FK 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.777 / def 1.385 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.157 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Orgryte IS 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 18% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 58 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
18%
5.59
21%
4.67
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.02
2.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
5.59
18%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
2%
41.90
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 2.02 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 15W 18D 25L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 13L across 58 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasteras SK FK by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 6W 11D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 13W 6D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.69 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.00 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from May 2021. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
7
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Orgryte IS 0-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 59%, Vasteras SK FK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Orgryte IS) and 55% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Orgryte IS's games and 59% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Orgryte IS's matches and 55% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 79% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.00 xG and Vasteras SK FK 2.02 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.78 / defence 1.39 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 18% | Draw 21% | Vasteras SK FK 61%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 55%, Vasteras SK FK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.