Osters IF 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees IK brage travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.50 PPG, IK brage 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osters IF, 2 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and IK brage 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 61% | IK brage 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.82 xG and IK brage 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.099 / defence 0.850 | IK brage attack 0.683 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.304. Data: 57 Osters IF games / 57 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 62% | Draw 23% | IK brage 15%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 60% | IK brage 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 62% | Draw 23% | IK brage 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Osters IF 1.82 / IK brage 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.099 / def 0.850 | IK brage attack 0.683 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.76
IK brage xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IK brage kick off?
Osters IF vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Osters IF 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Osters IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IK brage part of?
Osters IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 62% chance of winning, IK brage a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osters IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): Osters IF 2W | Draws 1 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.10x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.36
15%
6.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.58
0.76
IK brage xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.84
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
42.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.76 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 25W 15D 17L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 22W 14D 21L from 57 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.58 PPG, IK brage on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (14W 6D 8L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 15D 17L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or IK brage away?
Osters IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.71 PPG; IK brage away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and IK brage runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 61%, IK brage 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Osters IF) and 57% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Osters IF's games and 61% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Osters IF's matches and 57% of IK brage's.
Do Osters IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IK brage in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat IK brage 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.82 xG and IK brage 0.76 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against IK brage attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 62% | Draw 23% | IK brage 15%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 61%, IK brage 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.58 PPG, IK brage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.