GIF Sundsvall 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in GIF Sundsvall's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–0 AFC Eskilstuna — a GIF Sundsvall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus AFC Eskilstuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | AFC Eskilstuna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.51 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.849 / defence 1.193 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.653 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.221. AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 28 games and AFC Eskilstuna's last 58.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.99 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.20. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 home games) | AFC Eskilstuna 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, matchday 29 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.51 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.849 / def 1.193 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.653 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AFC Eskilstuna xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Superettan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 50% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.85) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.65x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 28 games and AFC Eskilstuna's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.85
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
18.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 13W 9D 36L from 58 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 27L across 58 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.16 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 9W 4D 16L from their last 29 home games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.24 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs AFC Eskilstuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 9D 36L in their last 58 games (0.83 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.07 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 5 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 November 2023: GIF Sundsvall 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 66%, AFC Eskilstuna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (GIF Sundsvall) and 52% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 48% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 72% of AFC Eskilstuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 29, as GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.51 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.65 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 60%, AFC Eskilstuna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 0.83 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.