Orebro SK 2-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Elfsborg are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | IF Elfsborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.713 / defence 1.228 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.200 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.165. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Orebro SK games / 59 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 55%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | IF Elfsborg 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 60% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Orebro SK 0.98 / IF Elfsborg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.713 / def 1.228 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.200 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.72
IF Elfsborg xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Orebro SK 2 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 21% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.71) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
21%
4.68
24%
4.19
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.72
IF Elfsborg xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
26.10
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.72 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 12D 31L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.75 PPG from 59 outings (28W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 10W 7D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.72 points per game from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.64 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 19D 12L in their last 59 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.28 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Orebro SK's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Orebro SK 2-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 55%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Orebro SK) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 38%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Orebro SK's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Orebro SK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Orebro SK 2-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.72 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.71 / defence 1.23 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.20 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 21% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 55%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, IF Elfsborg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.