Mjallby AIF 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Mjallby AIF welcome Orebro SK to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Orebro SK and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Orebro SK trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 48% versus Orebro SK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.05 xG and Orebro SK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / defence 0.911 | Orebro SK attack 0.844 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.157. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Mjallby AIF games / 58 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 15%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Orebro SK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 20% | Orebro SK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.05 / Orebro SK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / def 0.911 | Orebro SK attack 0.844 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Orebro SK xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 64% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.02x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.92
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.94
0.89
Orebro SK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
50.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.89 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 21W 18D 19L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 16W 11D 31L from 58 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.40 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 4D 19L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.00 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 16W 11D 31L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Orebro SK away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.62 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2021, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 45%, Orebro SK 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mjallby AIF) and 59% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 28% of games; Orebro SK in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 45% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 59% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK finished level at 0-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.05 xG and Orebro SK 0.89 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 15%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, Orebro SK 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.