Hammarby FF 5-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Kalmar FF travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kalmar FF's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 2.00 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for Kalmar FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 64% versus Kalmar FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 59% | Kalmar FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and Kalmar FF 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.248 / defence 1.045 | Kalmar FF attack 1.224 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.165. Kalmar FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Hammarby FF games / 59 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 22% | Kalmar FF 31%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Kalmar FF 3.23. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 22% | Kalmar FF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Hammarby FF 1.87 / Kalmar FF 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.248 / def 1.045 | Kalmar FF attack 1.224 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Kalmar FF xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF 5 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 47% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Record (2 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.25x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
47%
2.15
22%
4.46
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.36
1.49
Kalmar FF xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.49 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 24W 19D 16L from 59 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 21L across 59 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.54 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 14W 12D 3L from 29 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.14 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 24W 19D 16L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.86 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 62%, Kalmar FF 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hammarby FF) and 52% (Kalmar FF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hammarby FF's games and 55% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 52% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 5-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and Kalmar FF 1.49 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.04 against Kalmar FF attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 22% | Kalmar FF 31%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 59%, Kalmar FF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.54 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.