IK brage 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 4 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 5W 3D 2L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Orebro SK (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for IK brage against 1.80 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 57% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.69 xG and Orebro SK 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.076 / defence 0.980 | Orebro SK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.275. Data: 30 IK brage games / 0 Orebro SK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 24%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 4.17. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 50% | Orebro SK 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG IK brage 1.69 / Orebro SK 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.076 / def 0.980 | Orebro SK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Orebro SK xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orebro SK kick off?
IK brage vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
IK brage 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is IK brage vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orebro SK part of?
IK brage vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IK brage and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.85x) against IK brage's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.15
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.75
1.06
Orebro SK xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
22.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for IK brage and 1.06 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 9D 11L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 12W 6D 12L from 30 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for IK brage against 1.40 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orebro SK away?
IK brage's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.47 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IK brage
1
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 6, Orebro SK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Orebro SK 0-3 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orebro SK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Orebro SK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IK brage) and 53% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 47% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IK brage's recent games and 53% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.69 xG and Orebro SK 1.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 24%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 57%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.30 PPG, Orebro SK 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.