IF Elfsborg 2-4 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.60 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 53% versus AIK Stockholm 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | AIK Stockholm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.18 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.045 / defence 0.773 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.773 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.157. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 58 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | AIK Stockholm 4.55. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — AIK Stockholm's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 30% | AIK Stockholm 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.18 / AIK Stockholm 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.045 / def 0.773 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.773 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.69
AIK Stockholm xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 4 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 48% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.04x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.26
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
1.87
0.69
AIK Stockholm xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.69 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 28W 19D 11L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 26W 14D 18L from 58 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.78 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (14W 11D 4L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 10D 11L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.16 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 19D 11L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.83 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 55%, AIK Stockholm 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Elfsborg) and 34% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 31%; AIK Stockholm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 41% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 34% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-4 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.18 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.69 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.77 / defence 0.75, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, AIK Stockholm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.