BK Hacken 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.30 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 61% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 56% | Djurgardens IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.39 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.219 / defence 1.134 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.879 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.165. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 BK Hacken games / 59 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 42% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 31%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: BK Hacken 60% | Djurgardens IF 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 42% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG BK Hacken 1.39 / Djurgardens IF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.219 / def 1.134 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.879 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Djurgardens IF xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 42% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.22x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.77
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.55
1.16
Djurgardens IF xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.16 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 21W 22D 16L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 30W 12D 17L from 59 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.44 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 6D 10L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.58 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 21W 22D 16L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.79 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 55%, Djurgardens IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (BK Hacken) and 41% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 38%; Djurgardens IF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of BK Hacken's recent games and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.39 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.16 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.22 / defence 1.13 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 42% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 31%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 56%, Djurgardens IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.44 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.