IF Elfsborg 0-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 4 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 2.00 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IF Elfsborg 0W, Mjallby AIF 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Mjallby AIF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.054 / defence 1.001 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.052 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.225. Data: 30 IF Elfsborg games / 30 Mjallby AIF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 40% | Mjallby AIF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.37 / Mjallby AIF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.054 / def 1.001 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.052 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 39% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.05x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.84
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.29 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (22W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.42 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.77 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 57%, Mjallby AIF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 47% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 47% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Mjallby AIF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.77 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.