Levante 0-2 Valencia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Levante at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Valencia.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Levante host Valencia at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Levante — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Levante have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Valencia have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Valencia away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.90 PPG, Valencia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Levante's games and 60% of Valencia's (from Levante's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Levante, 2 for Valencia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Levante 0–1 Valencia — a Valencia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Levante in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Valencia in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 54% versus Valencia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Valencia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.33 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.751 / defence 1.285 | Valencia attack 0.895 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.126. Levante's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Levante's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Data: built from Levante's last 22 games and Valencia's last 61.

Result probabilities: Levante 36% | Draw 29% | Valencia 34%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.77 | Draw 3.41 | Valencia 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Levante's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levante 70% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights