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Poisson rates Villarreal at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Villarreal encounter.

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Analysis

Villarreal make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Levante (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levante have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Levante 1W, Villarreal 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Levante winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 52% versus Villarreal 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Villarreal 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.665 / defence 1.339 | Villarreal attack 1.208 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.128. Levante's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Levante games / 61 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 20% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 55%. Fair-value odds: Levante 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levante 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.

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