Girona 2-1 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Barcelona (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Girona face Barcelona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Barcelona make the trip to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi to face Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Girona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Barcelona's overall La Liga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Barcelona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Barcelona have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Barcelona arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Girona lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Barcelona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Girona — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Barcelona — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 54% versus Barcelona 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 52% | Barcelona 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.10 xG and Barcelona 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.797 / defence 1.166 | Barcelona attack 1.575 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.137. Girona's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Girona games / 61 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 18% | Draw 23% | Barcelona 59%. Fair-value odds: Girona 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Barcelona 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Barcelona (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 40% | Barcelona 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 18% | Draw 23% | Barcelona 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Girona 1.10 / Barcelona 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.797 / def 1.166 | Barcelona attack 1.575 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Girona xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Barcelona xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Barcelona kick off?
Girona vs Barcelona kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Barcelona?
Girona 2 - 1 Barcelona.
Where is Girona vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Barcelona part of?
Girona vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 18% chance of winning, Barcelona a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Girona and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Barcelona?
Record (7 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 1 | Barcelona 4W.
What form are Girona and Barcelona in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Barcelona (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Girona's attack at 0.80x the league average against Barcelona's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Barcelona's attack (1.57x) against Girona's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
18%
5.52
23%
4.34
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Girona xG
Total xG
3.19
2.09
Barcelona xG
5.52
18%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
12%
8.06
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
2%
44.46
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Girona and 2.09 for Barcelona, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Barcelona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Girona's recent record stands at 17W 16D 28L from 61 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Barcelona, meanwhile, have gone 47W 5D 9L across 61 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Barcelona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Barcelona by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Girona heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Girona have managed 10W 7D 13L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barcelona's away record stands at 21W 4D 5L across 30 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Girona are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 2.70 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Barcelona in 61%.
Defensively: Barcelona in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Barcelona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 47W 5D 9L in their last 61 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.23 PPG; Barcelona away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Girona or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Barcelona in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Barcelona won 1-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Barcelona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Girona
1
Draws
4
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Barcelona?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Barcelona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Girona 2-1 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Barcelona 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Girona and 73% for Barcelona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Barcelona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Girona's games and 67% of Barcelona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Girona's matches and 73% of Barcelona's.
Do Girona and Barcelona tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Barcelona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Barcelona 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.10 xG and Barcelona 2.09 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Barcelona landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Barcelona attack 1.57 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 18% | Draw 23% | Barcelona 59%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Girona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 52%, Barcelona 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Barcelona's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Girona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.