🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Villarreal at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Valencia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Ceramica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Villarreal — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio de la Ceramica — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.20 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Valencia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Villarreal winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Villarreal in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Valencia in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 61% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 61% | Valencia 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.08 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.261 / defence 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.959 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.129. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Villarreal games / 62 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Villarreal 61% | Draw 22% | Valencia 17%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Valencia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights